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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    Stocks posted their fourth consecutive week of losses, the first such streak since 2014, after FOMC Minutes showed an increased willingness from the Fed to raise rates in June. We rebounded off the 100-EMA on Thursday and forming a tight channel off the April highs which measures back to 2,070 in the short-term. On a longer-term view, we’re forming a big cup and handle pattern against the 2,100 level which is building momentum for the next leg higher. RSI is curling higher on the daily and nearing a move back above 50 while MACD is trying to hold above the zero line and turn back higher. Weekly RSI remains over 50. DI+/DI- remains bearish but beginning to show signs of moving towards a cross with ADX under 20. Key areas of support this week are the 100-EMA at 2,030, December support at 2,010, and 1,995 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci of the move from the 2-11 lows. Resistance above is the 20-EMA at 2,060 which is firmly sloping downward, the channel high at 2,070, and then 2,085 from the high-volume trend higher day on 5-10.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed a decline in bullish responses by 1.1% to 19.3% and neutral responses down 1.7% to 46.6%. Bearish responses rose 2.8% to 34.1%. Bearish and Neutral are both above the long-term average. Bullish responses are far below the long-term average of 38.5%. NAAIM Exposure Index jumped this week after several weeks of declines to close at 60.17. Lipper Fund Flows for the week showed an outflow of $3.9B from equities and inflows of $4.9B to taxable bonds. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day MA fell for the fifth consecutive week to 48% while the percentage above their 200-day rose modestly to 68.8%. As of Friday’s close there were 43 new highs on the NYSE and 19 new lows. The advance/decline volume ratio was 2.69-to-1. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio was 0.78 while the Index Put/Call ratio was 1.22. NYMO closed at -30.78 after touching -67 on Thursday, potentially a short-term oversold spot. NYSE McClellan Summation closed at 723.40, lower for the third consecutive week. Cumulative TICK continued to make new highs.

  • Daily Freebies

    May 23rd, 2016

    Macys (M) January 2017 spreads 3,350X selling the $25 puts to buy the $35/$45 call spreads

    Starbucks (SBUX) August $60/$45 bull risk reversals trade 5,000X to open at the PHLX for a small $0.18 debit, looking for a rebound move

    PayPal (PYPL) buyer of 2,000 July $39 calls to open $1.15 offer, shares reversing after holding last weeks lows

    Canadian Pacific (CP) bullish action with 825 June $135 ITM puts being sold to open at $7.80 aggressively with shares trading $128.20.

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