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    The premier site for active option and equity traders, providing the fastest, most thorough, and accurate options analytics in the industry.  OptionsHawk is the first, and best, site to provide real-time analysis of Institutional and Unusual options trades.

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    The options market has consistently been a leading indicator of future price movement in stocks. I have consistently been able to predict large stock moves due to takeovers, earnings, technical breaks, and other events that move stocks.

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  • Market Views


    Technical View:  

    The S&P made another closing high last week though spent much of the week with a health consolidation above its 8 day EMA that can set-up for continuation higher. These moves have tended to extend to the upper daily Bollinger Band which is near 2,040 for a final target of this move, and aligns closely with a trend extension off longer term highs. Support on weakness seen at 1,990 and 1,980 levels, while 1,955 would be support 3 and below that would be a signal for further weakness. MACD is starting to decelerate on the histogram and we remain fairly overbought, but price-action remains very strong, and 2,011 and 2,025 potential upside Fibonacci extension targets.



    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment rose 5.8% to 51.9%, now well above the 39% historical average, while bearish sentiment down 4.4% to 19.2% and well below the 30.5% historical average, so clearly some warning signals with excessively bullish sentiment. The NAAIM Exposure Index jumped sharply as well to 78.84, the highest reading since the end of July. Equity Fund Flows data showed inflows of $6.1B last week and for July net inflows of $9.4B. The CNN Fear and Greed Index finished the week at a level of 43, still indicative of modest fear, but up from 26 1 month ago. As of Fridays close 466 stocks made new highs and just 52 at new lows, strong participation, and now 60.9% of stocks trading above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.56, a Neutral level, while Index Put/Call at 1.54 at an extreme high, indicating active hedging. NYSE A/D cumulative made a fresh high last week, a positive signal for the strength of this latest rally, and NYMO finished the week at +40.9, fairly overbought. NYSE Summation at +533 continues to climb, and the break above its 5 day moving average was a great bullish signal.  With the bulk of earnings season over, and September historically a weak month for markets, upside may be fairly capped without catalysts, and geo-political risks remain the major overhang.

  • Daily Freebies

    August 21st, 2014

    Cornerstone On-Demand (CSOD) with an unusually large spread that buys 1000 November $40 calls at $2.40 to $2.50 and sells 500 November $35 puts to open $2.85 to $2.90. CSOD shares are trying to double bottom on the weekly with the May low. The $1.96B cloud-based talent management solutions Co. trades 8.8X Sales and at this market cap with shares -31.2% YTD, could be a buyout target. On 5-21 FBR started shares Outperform with a $48 target.

    Yahoo (YHOO) active trades in October with the $40/$43/$46 butterfly call spread 25,000X50,000. YHOO shares are consolidating above the recent $37 breakout and looks to be positioning for the Alibaba IPO

    Adobe (ADBE) buyer of 2,000 ITM October $70 calls at $3.65 offer

    Now Inc. (DNOW) unusual buys of 830 November $35 calls at $1 offer. The $3.48B Energy and Industrial products Co. trades 0.83X Sales and 1.78X Book, a recent spin-off of National Oilwell (NOV).

  • Strategy of the Month
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