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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P rallied sharply the last two weeks and moved out of the 1,870/2,000 zone, back above its 50 day moving average and the 8/20 bullish MA crossover back near 1,955. MACD is quite extended on the histogram but the first notable wall of resistance on price by volume is at the 2,040 level, while the 200 day MA is up near 2,060. The bullish RSI divergence seen on the re-test of the 1,870 low indicated the bounce, and now it has been completed for the most part, and support on retraces includes the 2,000, 1,975, and 1,995 levels. Looking back the 1,870 level was a key one to hold, re-testing the May 2014 breakout point and also trend support off the start of 2012. The 20 week EMA stands in the way at 2,020.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment jumped 9.4 to 37.5%, back in line with historical averages, while bearish sentiment plummeted 11.7 to 28.2%. The NAAIM Exposure Index rebounded off multi-year lows to 38.3, highest reading since mid-August. Fund flows showed $8B of equity fund outflows last week, and also the short interest in the market has been moving up to multi-year highs. As of Friday’s close 154 new highs compared to 42 new lows, strength starting to show, and now 59.1% of stocks are above the SMA50 but just 31.8% above the SMA200. CBOE Equity Put/Call closed the week at 0.64 and Index Put/Call at 0.99. NYSE Cumulative A/D has snapped a downtrend that lasted 5 months, and NYSE Summation that diverged near the lows also continues to climb and is nearing positive territory. NYMO at 88.7 is showing an extreme overbought market, but time can work out of this condition, not requiring a major price decline. NYSE Cumulative TICK that triggered a buy signal in late September is now nearing the June highs. The VIX:VXV ratio has pulled back to 0.86, a 6 week low, and the 0.8 to 0.82 zone has often coincided with short term rally tops. The market’s interest has shifted to Micro from Macro with earnings season upon us, though uncertainty on the Fed liftoff and China growth remain major influencers.

  • Daily Freebies

    October 13th,  2015

    C&J Energy (CJES) opening buy of 3,000 January 2016 $4 calls at $1.31 to $1.40

    Parker Hannifin (PH) buyer of 2,000 November $110 ITM puts at $7.50 to $7.80 ahead of 10-22 earnings. PH is oil & gas exposed industrial and comments from FAST this morning suggesting that their specific exposure to those end-markets not yet seeing full recovery

    AMC Networks (AMCX) shares very weak today down more than 3.5% and a buyer of 1,000 November $75 puts to open here for $2.85 on the AMEX

    Suncor Energy (SU) IV climbing with a buyer of 5,000 December $28 calls to open at $1.67 to $1.69

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