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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P rallied off a test near the May lows last week also touching its rising 150 day MA, but stalled just below the 20 day moving average, putting the market right back into this extended trading range. The trend remains strong with higher lows and rising 50, 150, 200 day moving averages, while MACD looks to be nearing a bullish crossover as well. Support levels into this week are 2,090/2,070/2,040 while resistance levels are 2,110/2,120/2,135.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment down 7.3% to 20%, the lowest level in a long time, while bearish sentiment jumped 8% to 32.6%, above historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell back to 68.7, a low level now for five straight weeks. The latest week of fund flows showed $2.8B inflows to equity funds, third straight week of inflows. As of Friday’s close 147 new highs compared to 91 new lows, and just 42.6% of stocks are trading above the 50 day MA, participation in this market has really thinned out. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio snapped back to 0.67 on Friday and Index Put/Call to 1.2. NYSE Cumulative A/D remains weak after snapping an uptrend in mid-May, a negative signal, and NYSE Summation continues to fall even on days the market rallies. NYMO finished the week -24.8, fairly oversold. NYSE Cumulative TICK is the one indicator that remains strong, hitting new highs last week. The VIX:VXV ratio close 0.88, elevated, but off extremes that marked the recent low. Market breadth remains on shaky ground, but skepticism is also very high with short interest near record highs. It is the type of environment where a move past recent highs/lows can cause a swift herd mentality to send the market much higher/lower in a short time.

  • Daily Freebies

    July 1st,  2015

    Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI) spread sells 5,000 January 2016 $25 puts at $1.15 to buy 5,000 of the $29/$34 call spreads at $1.52.

    Qualcomm (QCOM) bearish action with 5,000 August $60 puts bought to open today $1.12 to $1.14. QCOM shares continue to trade ugly with weak underlying business and constant buybacks unable to appease investors, while recent comments make it unlikely that a spin-off will take place, a move that could have created value for shareholders. Drexel Hamilton cut QCOM to Sell on 6-29 with a $55 target noting intensifying competition from Intel and Samsung.

    Las Vegas Sands (LVS) July $57 calls hot with 6,500 trading to open $0.48 to $0.50, casino stocks gaining today with China reducing Macau restrictions and climbing earlier this week on the Land and Buildings letter to MGMs Board.

    Maxim (MXIM) bearish action as 1,850 August $35 puts are bought $2.10 offer to open and then a block of 4,150 trades $2.15.

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