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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P closed lower this week, breadth beginning to show some short-term signs of exhaustion, and closed below the trio of short-term moving averages for the first time since mid-February when the rally began. We opened below and tested the 20-EMA briefly on Friday at 2,073 before fading into 2,080, a big range from early April. The 50-EMA is below at 2,040, a key spot below which also represent the 23.6% Fibonacci of the recent move. The 200-EMA below at 2,020 and 38.2% Fibonacci at 1,995 the intermediate-term targets lower. The 8-week EMA at 2,050 was supportive on Friday and if we can gather traction and form a higher low here against the April range, the 8/13 EMA at 2,085 is the first resistance. We enter a seasonally weak period this week with May to October historically a sluggish period for stocks and continue with a big rush of earnings which will help shape sentiment.


    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed a decline of 6% in bullish responses to 27.4%, continuing to drop far below the long-term average of 38.6%. Neutral responses rose 1.4% to 44.0% and bearish responses rose 4.7% to 28.6%. Neutral responses remain elevated to the long-term average. The NAAIM Exposure Index slipped modestly to 74.19 but remains above the December levels. Lipper Fund Flows for the week showed equity inflows of $0.1B and $10.2B in outflows from taxable bonds. Equities have seen outflows 13 of the past 17 weeks while bonds have seen inflows 15 of the past 17 weeks. The percentage of S&P stocks below their 50-MA fell to 68% this week, the second week of declines and third in the past month, while the percentage above their 200-MA fell to 70.4%. NYSE Summation hit 1,215.23, the highest level since 2012. Cumulative TICK continued to make new highs. On Friday, the NYSE saw 101 new highs and 11 new lows with the advance/decline volume ratio at 0.66. CBOE Index Put/Call ratio closed at 1.4 while Equity Put/Call hit 0.86, highest level since March 22nd. NYMO closed the week at -8.80, falling below the 200-MA and under the 50-MA all week. SKEW Index closed at 126.49.

  • Daily Freebies

    May 4th, 2016

    Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) trading similar spreads this morning to open. BABA seeing the May 27th (W) $77.50 and $80 calls each sold to open 5,000X while the June 3rd (W) $77.5 and $80 calls bought to open 5,000X. BIDU is seeing the May 27th (W) $180 and $185 calls sold to open 2,500X with the June 3rd (W) $180 and $185 calls bought to open 2,500X.

    Xilinx (XLNX) large spread buys 3,375 January 2017 $44 calls to open $3.17 to $3.18, look to be rolling back 1,950 of the $50 calls at $1.01 while 1,375 June $43 calls trade $1.35 as well. XLNX shares basing near $43 after being hit on earnings, a name with some sizable put sales in OI

    Anheuser Busch (BUD) trades 5,000 June $15 calls $0.80 offer and 5,000 September $140 calls $1.90 to $2 offer. BUD now with a buyer of 10,000 September $145 calls $1.45 and 10,000 December $155 calls at $1.35 as well

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