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  • Market Views

    4/14/14

    Technical View: The S&P saw further technical damage last week as the 1,840/1,880 range broke that measures to a target of 1,800, but looking at the 150 day MA that acted as support in both the October 2013 and February 2014 corrections, and is also right near key longer term trend support (1794), and area of importance for bulls to make a stand, but expecting some early week weakness to continue before a reversal can be found off support. The main levels of support entering the week are 1,800/1,794/1,770, and remember that most of our reversals tend to be sharp and fast, currently needing confirmation of a close above the prior days high in order to get bullish against the lows. On a bounce resistance is likely to be found at prior support levels of 1,825/1,840/1,860. In terms of being oversold with bearish sentiment, we are there, but can use some extreme readings to put in a sustainable low, and that may come as soon as this week if we break 1,800 and see similar action to last week.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed bullish sentiment plunge to 28.5%, down 6.9%, and well below the 39% historical average, while bearish sentiment surged 7.3% to 34.1%, back above the 30.5% historical average. The NAAIM Exposure Index finished with a reading of 85.2, remains elevated and really would like to see this number move back to 60 for a better reversal signal. The most recent fund flows data showed weekly equity fund inflows of $8.9B. As of Fridays close71 stocks made new highs and 129 at new lows, breadth has been hit hard with the latest week of selling, and currently just 42.8% of stocks are above the SMA50. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed the week at 0.75, a bearish extreme, the highest reading since late September, coming about a week before the October bottom. The Index Put/Call closed the week at 0.99, not an extreme, but the S&P did bust to the downside of its Bollinger Bands, which also has typically seen a bottom form for a reversal move. The NYSE cumulative A/D really has not taken a large hit and remains in an uptrend, a bullish divergence, while NYMO finished the week at -47.93, oversold, but not an extreme as -63.73 was hit in February. There is also a bit of a fear extreme with spot VIX trading above 3-month VIX futures, so all the ingredients are there and if we see 1,795 early this week it will be a great spot to put cash to work in names with strong fundamentals.

  • Daily Freebies

    April 17th, 2014

    First Solar (FSLR) block of 5,000 May $67.50 calls opened at $5.05 offer at the PHLX, trades vs. 250,000 shares at $68, appears to be a stock replacement

    Google (GOOGL) size buyers of 2,500 June $625 calls at $3 offers on weakness, more than $10M call premium bought first 10 minutes of trading

    Pulte Homes (PHM) opening buy of 5,000 October $20 calls $1.19, earnings on 4/24 and shares holding above $18.50 support the last few weeks.

    Fed-Ex (FDX) opening buys of 1,650 May $135 calls $2.78 to $2.90 offers, bullish action picking up

  • Strategy of the Month
  • Recent Highlights

    RECENT HIGHLIGHTED TRADES

    • 2/10/14: Closed Yahoo (YHOO) Calls +60.7%
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