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  • Market Views

    7/27/15

    Technical View:

    The S&P quickly went from overbought to oversold last week, failing to start the week at familiar 2,130 resistance and then selling off, which accelerated throughout the week and took us back to the level of the bottoming pattern breakout in early July, erasing much of the recent gain. If we start the week lower once again we will look to the rising 200 day MA at 2,064 as support, and then the 2,040 level of key support could come back into play. A move below 2,040 sets up for 1,990, though we do enter the market quite oversold, and will watch for weak attempts to recover and fail at the 2,100 level. Small caps are leading the way lower after never challenging highs, and suspect breadth for the S&P when it was nearing new highs was a strong tell that something was not right. Bears are back in control as the 8, 13, 20 day moving averages roll over, and MACD nears a bearish cross with RSI sub-50. The potential to for a right shoulder near 2,072 for a clean inverse head and shoulders pattern exists, and if we saw a reversal off that level that pattern would target a neckline breakout at 2,130 for a measured move target to 2,185.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed Bullish sentiment rise 1.7 to 32.5% and Bearish sentiment up 2.4 to 25.6%, each well below historical averages as Neutral sentiment remains elevated, a lot of uncertainty among individual investors. The NAAIM Exposure Index came in at 52.34 last week, unchanged, and remains near October 2014 lows. Fund flows data showed $1.4B in outflows from equity funds last week and $3.4B inflows to Bond funds. As of Friday 111 new highs compared to 749 new lows, an extreme reading for that indicator, and now just 30% of stocks are above the 50 day moving average, a lot of broken technical charts. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed last week 0.86, an extreme high, while Index Put/Call at 1.61 also near a 2 month high. NYSE Cumulative A/D which showed a bearish divergence when stocks recently made new highs, continues to weaken to the weakest level since February, while NYMO closed the week -42.77, fairly oversold. NYSE Summation is rolling back over after a brief recovery, and the NYSE A/D Volume cumulative reading hit a new low for 2015. S&P stocks above the 50 day MA at 195 is still well above the 135 reading from late June. NYSE Cumulative TICK broke back below its 20 day EMA Friday, a sell signal, and the VIX:VXV ratio at 0.88 showing plenty of room for more fear/selling to come into the market, a reading above 1 would be a time to be interested in buying an extreme once again. Overall, breadth in this market is weak and worsening, a real lack of leadership and much of this a result of the Commodity implosion, concerns surrounding global growth, specifically China.

  • Daily Freebies

    July 30th,  2015

    VMware (VMW) IV ticking up here with nearly 2,500 September $90 OTM calls bought to open $1.70 to $1.73 in a sweep, shares consolidating the earnings move well

    United Tech (UTX) opening buys 3,000 August 7th (W) $100 calls $1.18

    Mondelez (MDLZ) buyer of 9,000 September $45 calls $1.35, closes 6,000 of the $42 calls $3.40

    Michael Kors (KORS) opening buy 3,000 August 7th (W) $42 calls at $1.40, sizable ahead of 8-6 earnings, stock moving to day highs. KORS also with 3,000 August $41 calls bought now at $2.38

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  • Recent Highlights

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