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  • Market Views

    6/27/2016

    Technical View:

    Stocks dropped lower on Friday, the Dow closing down over 600 points, after the UK surprised markets by voting to leave the European Union. Financials had their worst day since 2011 with EU-domiciled names down as much as 25% intraday. We closed below the Ichimoku Cloud for the first time since February. The S&P closed above the 200-MA at 2,020.33 and above the May lows at 2,025.91. The Nasdaq showed relative weakness under both the 50-MA and 200-MA and broached the May lows. Friday’s candle left a lot of technical damage but holding the rising channel from the April highs to May lows. Under the May levels opens up a potential retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci at 2,001.96 with 1,993.26 from December 14, 2015 below. Resistance above on a relief rally are the 100-EMA at 2,052.70, the 50% Fibonacci of Friday’s move at 2,067.80, and the 50-EMA at 2,072.70 which is also the midpoint of the channel higher.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment survey showed bulls hitting new 4-week lows down 3.4% to 22%, nearing the May 25 levels of 17.8%. Neutral responses rose 5.7% to 42.8% while bearish sentiment fell 2.3% to 35.2%. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 69.35. Lipper Fund Flows showed $6.1B in outflows from equities with $2.5B of inflows to taxable bonds. The percentage of S&P stocks above their 50-day MA dropped to 34.2%, the lowest since February while the percentage above their 200-day MA fell to 62.2%, the lowest since April. NYSE Summation is 772.21, still above the May lows. As of Friday’s close the number of stocks on the NYSE making new highs was 154 versus just 53 new lows while the Nasdaq saw just 46 new highs versus 122 new lows. Cumulative TICK remained near new highs. NYMO closed the week at -21, so potential for more downside early next week before we hit oversold levels.

     

  • Daily Freebies

    June 27th, 2016

    Kate Spade (KATE) with 7,850 August $20 calls bought to open $1.15/$1.20 after calls in October at multiple strikes closed.

    McDonalds (MCD) trade puts on 3,000 January 2017 $125/$105 bull risk reversals at a $0.70 credit at the CBOE today, will confirm OI tomorrow

    EOG Resources (EOG) buyers of 1,000 October $90 calls at $2.17, same contracts saw buyers Friday, and shares holding up well near lower end of recent range

    Visa (V) trying to rally in the face of a market decline early with 600 July $74 calls bought $2.03. Visa (V) trader adjusting a position here closing 4,000 July 29th (W) $78.50 calls and 5,000 of the July 29th (W) $78 calls, opened on 6-17 and 6-20, to open 5,000 July 29th (W) $77 calls for $1.45

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