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  • Market Views


    Technical View:


    The S&P 500 closed lower this week with two trend days down and closed near key support at 1,875 setting up an early challenge next week for the bulls to defend. The market failed right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move from 12/29 to the 1/20 lows, 1,946, which now becomes a notable spot if we’re to re-test 2,005 in the near-term. The October 2014 low, which acted as support on 1-20 at 1,812, is still a key spot and below triggers a bear flag which measures on a move back to the 1,700 range. The 8- and 13-day EMA are resistance above short-term at 1,905. MACD and RSI have begun to curl back downward with Friday’s sell-off.


    The AAII Sentiment survey showed modest shift away from bearish positioning this week as the number of neutral responses rose 7.5% to 37.7%, bearish sentiment fell 5.2% to 34.7%. Bullish members fell 2.2% to 27.5%, still considerably below the long-term average of 38.67%. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell to 22.41, below the January 20th levels, and to its lowest mark since September. Fund flow data showed equity outflows of $6.5B for the week ending 2/3, the fifth consecutive week of outflows and largest since 1/13. As of Friday’s close just 25.19% of stocks are trading above their 50-day MA while 19.9% are above their 200-day, both down on the week. During the week, 18 stocks made new 1-year highs while 204 made new 1-year lows. 31 stocks made new 6-month highs while 277 made new 6-month lows. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio closed at 0.92, the high-end of the historical range while the Index Put/Call closed at 0.81, the low-end of the historical range. NYSE Cumulative A/D stayed steady this week closing modestly lower. Summation closed at -559.77, climbing higher each day this week and steady above its 5-day EMA. Cumulative TICK made new highs while XIV:VIX ratio rose to 0.96.

  • Daily Freebies

    February 11th, 2016

    Axiall (AXLL) now trading 2,000 February $20 calls to open from $1.00 to $1.25 offer, shares jumping to the highs from the early action. AXLL recently received a $20 cash offer from Westlake Chemical (WLK) which it rejected. The company is being pushed by Brigade Capital to accept the offer and some lingering thoughts a competing bid could emerge. Axiall (AXLL) now with a buyer of 3,000 May $20 calls to open at $3, aggressive purchase

    Starbucks (SBUX) IV jumping with 3,500 February $52 puts bought to open near $0.57, looking for a breakdown of recent lows into next week with longer term support down at $48.50

    CVS Health (CVS) IV rising with buyers of 3,000 February $91 puts paying $1.25 to $1.45, shares bounced back from an earnings sell-off, but now traders looking to fade the bounce

    Orbital ATK (OA) with 1,000 March $80 puts bought for $3.45, rolling out of a position in the February $85 puts which close at $3.80. Shares rolling over and a big head and shoulders pattern forming with a move under $84 measuring down to $74. 

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