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5/14/12

Technical View: The S&P put in a choppy sideways range last week and holding above the 100 day EMA, a channel down pattern starting to develop. There is a convergence of supports right around 1,340, the trend support from the October lows through the November lows, the 23.6% Fibonacci from the October lows to April 2012 highs, and a re-test of March 2012 lows, also former resistance from 2011 that has become support. RSI remains in a downward trend as well, while a break back above the 50 mark would generate a buy signal. Into this week the first resistance is 1,365, followed by 1,375 and 1,390. Support seen at 1,350 and 1,340, while a break of that could trigger a fall back to around 1,300. The longer term view shows this as weeks of consolidation, while a measured move target of 1,560 still exists from the January 2012 breakout past 1,345.

Sentiment/Internals:

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey showed the highest bearish sentiment since October 2011 which coincided with a market bottom, jumping 13.6% to 42.1%. Bullish sentiment fell 10% to 25.4%, the lowest level of optimism since September 2011. The NAAIM number rebounded to 64.2 from 48.2. The latest week of equity fund flows showed a $6.5B outflow. On Friday 154 stocks made new highs and 168 made new lows, weakness shown in that indicator, but 60% of stocks remain above 200 day moving average, while just 36.8% above the 50 day SMA. The latest options sentiment reading are beginning to show an extreme bearish sentiment as well with CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio exceeding 0.70. In Europe we have economic weakness, political uncertainty, and a debt crisis, while in China and India we are seeing a slowdown in growth, two countries the global economy is dependent on for growth. In the US data has been mostly mixed, but the inability to improve the employment picture continues to weigh on sentiment.

May 17th, 2012

Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) being hit hard and 5,000 June $11 puts bought at $0.40 offers to open, trading 4X daily puts with $230K put premium and IV just now starting to jump.

Terex (TEX) with 2,300 June $17 puts bought to open at $1.15/$1.20 offers, trading $325K put premium first 30 minutes of trading and an ugly looking chart.

AuRico Gold (AUQ) with 2,700 June $7 calls trading, offer side buyers

3/26/12: Closed SWI Calls +90.5%

3/16/12: Closed DO Calls +70.6%

3/15/12: Closed SYK Calls +71.5%

3/14/12: Closed AGN Calls +100%

3/13/12: Closed UTX Calls +56.25%

2/28/12: Closed COF Calls +101.4%

2/27/12: Closed BP Calls +96%

2/23/12: Closed IBM Calls +75%

2/16/12: Closed POT Calls +51.85%

2/9/12: Closed APA Calls +115.4%

2/8/12: Closed RL Earnings Trade, Call Fly, +128.57%

2/6/12: Closed BP Calls +60.8%

2/1/12: Closed PAAS Calls +81.8%