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  • Market Views

    7/24/16

    Technical View:

    The S&P closed the week near the highs, the fourth consecutive week of gains following the Brexit vote which has largely become a non-issue as investors realize the vote will take years to materialize. This was the second four-week streak of gains for the S&P this year, the prior in January which ran for five weeks before a short pullback. We had one four-week streak of gains in 2015 and two in 2014. We hit the upper-end of a big weekly channel at 2,175, so perhaps getting a little extended but overall a big bullish trend with a monthly breakout over 2,135 and a healthy number of individual bullish setups among equities as money rotates. Moving into uncharted territory on the upside we can look at Fibonacci extensions from the February to June move for targets with the 123.6% extension at 2,195 and the 138.2% mark at 2,240 above as well. 2,200 also aligns with a measured target from the April/May range breakout. Support below is at the rising 13-EMA at 2,150, the 20-EMA at 2,135, and then 2,120 from June.

    Sentiment/Internals:

    The latest AAII Sentiment showed bullish responses to 35.4% and neutral responses to 37.85%, both down from the prior week, while bearish sentiment rose to 26.72%. Both bearish and bullish responses remain below their long-term historical average while neutral responses are elevated above the long-term average. The NAAIM Exposure Index fell marginally for the week to 92.64. Lipper Fund Flows showed $2.8B in outflows from equities and $3B of inflows to taxable bonds. We’ve seen outflows from equities now in 24 of the past 29 weeks. The percentage of S&P stocks above their 50-day MA was 86.2%, flat with the prior week, while the percentage above their 200-day MA rose to 79.4%. NYSE Summation rose to 1,256.15, the highest mark since February 2012. As of Friday’s close the number of stocks on the NYSE making new highs was 218 versus just 6 new lows and the Nasdaq showing similar breadth. Cumulative TICK is nearing new highs. NYMO closed the week at 17.07, not showing signs of being overbought despite the run.

     

  • Daily Freebies

    July 22nd, 2016

    PayPal (PYPL) aggressive buyer of 2,000 September $35 calls into morning weakness, stock rallied off lows most of the day.

    Southern Co. (SO) buyer of 1,000 January 2018 $55 calls to open $2.77 offer at ISE, earnings on 7-27.

    Southwestern Energy (SWN) buyers in the afternoon of 7,500 September $14 puts $1.05 to $1.18 into strength, expecting a correction.

    Grub Hub (GRUB) opening buys of 3,000 August $30 puts in the afternoon at $1.55 to $1.70, showing some caution ahead of 7-28 earnings.

    Big Lots (BIG) afternoon buyers of 2,375 August $52.50 puts $1.60 to $1.70 looking to add to the OI that opened earlier this week, and large October puts remain in OI.

    Reynolds (RAI) buyer of 1,000 January 2018 $52.50 calls at $4.30 at the ISE.
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  • Recent Highlights

    RECENT HIGHLIGHTED TRADES

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