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  • Market Views


    Technical View:

    The S&P closed the week on a strong note and now trades right at trend resistance of the large symmetrical triangle that has formed, while MACD crossed bullish and RSI strong back above the 55 level. The 2,120 level remains the next horizontal resistance for a range breakout that can target a measured move up to 2,200, though 2,145 likely initial resistance on a move past 2,120. All of the shorter term moving averages are sloping upwards, bulls in control, and a convergence of support near 2,080, while the recent break above 2,090 is also supportive on a re-test.



    The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows bullish sentiment down 6.7 points to 28.7%, well below the 38.9% historical average, and bearish sentiment down 7.8 points to 24.1%, while Neutral sentiment at 47.2 is way above the 30.7 historical average, so a lot of uncertainty. The NAAIM Exposure Index came in at 86.7 last week, starting to get elevated once again. Fund flow data showed $701M of Equity Fund outflows last week, after a week of $11.2B in outflows. As of Friday’s close 334 new highs compared to 51 new lows, strong participation, and now 66.6% of stocks trading above the SMA50 and 62.6% above the SMA200, Energy names helping broader participation with recent strength. Into this week the CBOE Equity Put/Call closed Friday 0.54 and Index Put/Call at 0.86, both extreme lows that can set up for a near term reversal, though the indicator jumps around quite a bit. Overall market breadth was one of the key factors in keeping a bullish view even on the recent range low test, and NYSE A/D Cumulative closed Friday at a brand new high as did New High / New Low. NYMO at 23.7 puts us a bit overbought, but nowhere near an extreme. NYSE Summation continues an upward trajectory after a buy signal early last week with the 5 day EMA crossover and now targets a return to highs. Cumulative NYSE TICK also reached new highs to finish the week, further bullish indications. The VIX:VXV ratio is back near 0.80 which has been a predecessor of some market weakness, worth monitoring that ratio closely.


  • Daily Freebies

    April 17th, 2015

    Johnson Controls (JCI) buyer of 7,000 July $55 calls $0.65 to $0.70, and comes a day after 7,500 May $52.50 calls were bought to open in hot action.

    Baker Hughes (BHI) buyer of 1,000 October $65 calls $5.975, merging with Halliburton, sizable purchase

    Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) buyer 8,000 June $15/$22.50 call spreads, closes 4,000 April $12.50 calls. HRTX original April call spreads started w/ stock back near $11, so fairly smart money based on past performance and now looking for a much higher move

    Dish Network (DISH) opening buys 2,500 June $70 calls at $3.20 to $3.30

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